Probability in business

As someone who has put together quite a few business plans over the years, this short (4 minute) video from Prof Sam Savage struck me as quite insightful. For me it highlights the difference between those of us with a knowledge of the theory of probability and those who have really thought about the way probability matters manifest in daily life. (I'm somewhere in between, and probably (hmm interesting word choice) closer to the theoretical end). I notice that in the background, Prof Savage has a copy of Bernstein's "Against the Gods" which I am pleased also to own and to have read, although in any discussion on probability, it would be a crime not to mention "Fooled By Randomness" from Nassim Nicholas Taleb. And now that I'm thinking of statistical solecisms, the common theme between Savage, Bernstein and Taleb, I'm reminded of the joke about the goverment education minister who was often heard to complain of the large number of schools which were still below average. Enjoy the video.